Malaysia: A new coalition in the making?June 23, 2020
Today marks the political divorce between ex-PM Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad with Anwar Ibrahim, the leader of the Pakatan Harapan coalition.
The Harapan is in opposition and controls some 91 seats in the Parliament of 222 seats. Dr Mahathir controls 6 seats and has the support of the 10 MPs from Warisan Sabah.
Together with the Harapan, the opposition coalition would have 107 seats in Parliament, which is not enough to take power.
But a power struggle in the Harapan last week ended with Mahathir losing to Anwar, for now.
But the Pakatan Harapan, which means Coalition of Hope, is probably living its last days as a united front.
Dr Mahathir claims he now has the support of the DAP and the Amanah in the Pakatan and only the PKR of Anwar Ibrahim is against him.
This is indicative of a possible attempt by Mahathir to break the PH. He can do it in two ways. First of all, he can get the PH to vote whether the PKR should remain in the opposition coalition since it has decided not to support Mahathir as PM.
Yes, Mahathir is not an official member of the PH, but the two parties, DAP and Amanah may listen to him and bring PKR to leave the coalition.
This will mean Mahathir will then join the coalition with his MPs and possibly with the support of the 10 ex-PKR members who quit the party in February to join PM Muhyiddin Yassin in power.
That will give the PH+ as it is called currently, around 77 MPs together with support from Warisan Sabah.
DAP has 42 seats, Amanah 10, Mahathir 6, the Azmin’s group 9 or 10 and Warisan Sabah 10. Thats a total of 77 or 78 MPs.
Mahathir will then need to get support from the Umno-BN component in the Parliament. They have around 42 seats.
if they follow Mahathir en-block, the elderly statesman will be able to claim he is the leader of the House with 120 seats.
That will be sufficient for him to oust Muhyiddin as PM in a vote of confidence in Parliament in July.
But whether Mahathir is appointed PM or not will depend solely on the King of Malaysia.