Holiday Shopping Season: Is Apple Stock A Buy Or Sell?

Global supply chain disruptions have engulfed retailers (both offline and online) around the world, and the United States is no exception. Nonetheless, the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that holiday sales in the United States will rise by 8.5 percent to 10.5 percent year on year in 2021.

Despite a strong holiday season last year, retailers anticipate another strong year in 2021. Despite a record 8.2 percent YoY growth in 2020, the estimated 8.5 percent YoY growth will be the strongest in the last 11 years. The NRF CEO has added (edited):

The forecast cites rising consumer incomes and low consumer debt, as well as retailer investments to ensure they are fully stocked in the fourth quarter of the year. This year’s spending is expected to set a new record. All retail categories have performed exceptionally well, particularly those that were most challenged last year and initially fell the most

(from Bloomberg article)

Seeking Alpha says US retailers have also reported robust quarterly results as they enter the holiday spending surge. For example, Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:Moutperformed consensus estimates in its FQ3 report card and raised guidance. 

APPLE

In its FQ4’21 earnings call, Apple is cautious with its guidance. Apple stated that supply constraints cost it approximately $6 billion in lost revenue. Notably, it predicted that supply constraints would become more pronounced in FQ1’22 (December 21 calendar quarter). Nonetheless, Apple is confident in its guidance, citing “high demand for [its] products” and expecting “very solid year-over-year revenue growth and a new revenue record during the December quarter.”

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