No one would want to be Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth right now, with his wife trending and a major ally publicly trashing him.
Furthermore, his funders appear to have turned against him after letting him down during his last visit to India.
All indications are that they did not fund his regime this time and that they have imposed more conditions on the disbursement of funds to Mauritius.
Nonetheless, we believe that even though some high-profile figures in the Indian government are dissociating with him, they will not let him fall flat.
All of this suggests that the embattled Prime Minister’s political situation in Mauritius is rapidly deteriorating.
This is not the first time the MSM leader has faced a difficult period during his rule.
There have been so many scandals involving his regime that it is difficult to keep up with them here.
But one thing is certain: the current wave of dissent (unusual in the MSM) and attacks from Prince Sherry Singh, the former CEO of Mauritius Telecom, are not helping Mr Pravind in carrying out his duties as Prime Minister.
Neither are the perplexing violations at Parliament nor is his handling of various scandals and troubles across the country.
So far, the Jugnauth regime has relied on bailouts from India in particular. That is a fact, given the large sums of money dumped in Mauritius by the Indian government since the latter’s party came to power.
However, as we stated above and in previous posts, bailouts have a limit, and India has demonstrated that it will not lavish ‘free’ money on Mauritius every time the PM or his ministers extend their ‘goblets’.
What is the reason for this? What has caused India to suddenly turn a blind eye to the Jugnauth regime?
First, there is a factional conflict within India’s ruling BJP party, which is influencing Mauritius’ local politics.
While it is not a leadership battle, the BJP is seeing a trend in which some factions are taking positions and burying their heels in the sand in the aftermath of a possible turn of events in India.
PM Narendra Modi will not rule indefinitely, and the fate of the BJP will be largely determined by who succeeds him.
The future leaders of the BJP must be those who support his policies and pursue his agenda, both locally and in the geopolitical spheres.
With its virtual capture of Agalega Island in Mauritius, India has established a strategic icon in the Indian Ocean.
Despite New Delhi and Port Louis’ denials, Agalega is now an Indian-controlled territory in the middle of the Indian Ocean.
As long as India follows American geopolitics in the Indian Ocean, the West will allow India to rule over Agalega, though the presence of a foreign base near the Diego Garcia nuclear depot may irritate the Americans.
A leadership change in the BJP and India will have a significant impact on both the Indian occupation of Agalega and, by extension, Indian support for the Jugnauth regime.
The events in Mauritius indicate that things are not going well for the BJP’s pro-Modi factions and that changes are being sought.
However, dethroning Modi from his position of power will be difficult. Having said that, Amit Shah, one of the most powerful ministers in Modi’s cabinet, is expanding his reputation beyond the vast nation.
According to sources from New Delhi, he is working with a Modi supporter who recently paid a visit to Mauritius.
We are referring to Yogi Adityanath, the Hindu monk and politician who has been the 21st and current Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh since March 19, 2017.
The CM of Uttar Pradesh and Shah, Minister of Home Affairs, appear to be working together. They may be working together in an alliance for a better position in India’s succession line.
Modi has not named his successor, and because he has not named a deputy prime minister, he has full power to rule India.
However, because he is also dependent on a Cabinet, a successor will almost certainly come from there or from one of the powerful and most conservative CMs, such as Yogi.
What do these have to do with the situation in Mauritius? Modi appears to have given the Mauritius portfolio to Amit Shah and Yogi.
They will determine the next Indian move in the tiny Indian Ocean republic. This could imply that they do not fully support the current regime in Mauritius. Why is this the case?
According to sources, they are the ones who decided to send Jugnauth back to Mauritius with an empty ‘katori’ in April of this year.
The goal was not to put Mauritius in financial jeopardy. On the contrary, it was an attempt to improve relations with the Mauritius regime by getting a better deal.
Instead of bailing on projects that will not benefit India and will not generate revenue (as was the case with the Metro Leger), the bailout plan for Mauritius will now take the form of a ‘consortium.’
However, the consortium, possibly guided by both Shah and Yogi, may decide who they work with in Mauritius in the future.
There is cause for concern in New Delhi given the Jugnauth regime’s poor track record, a slew of scandals, and abuses of democratic institutions.
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